Regardless of the second wave of COVID-19 and new restrictions, we have learned considerably in comparison to the spring wave – the government is trying to preserve economic activity as much as possible, which leads to milder restrictions, and the behavior of people is also much less precautionary.
Increased economic activity and consumer confidence have enabled quick recovery of the market and thus it may be said with some certainty that such a large drop in the number of transactions and prices within one month that we saw in spring will not happen again. The winter is still ahead, which will bring along higher unemployment and reduced consumer confidence in the HoReCa sector. Therefore, we shall see minor month- and quarter-based corrections also in the future but no longer a profound and total drop. However, it may be noticed that as the number of cases increases, the number of people with less serious interest who wish to see properties has dropped and a certain number of people have done their purchases early on, fearing potential restrictions.
In November, mainly due to the large sales volume of the transactions with new developments in the market of Tallinn, over 2,100 transactions were concluded for the third consecutive month (2231 transactions in total), which was the best result of this year, surpassing the result of October by 41 transactions. The transaction activity is constantly high also in the rest of Estonia – the best results of the year were achieved in Harju County County, Lääne-Viru County and Pärnu County. The median price of transactions was 1,563 €/m2, which means that based on the first 11 months of the year the number of transactions has dropped by 7.4% but the median price has increased by 5.4%. The median price in Harju County was 2,017 €/m2; in comparison to last year, the median price has increased by 8% this year. In comparison to the first 11 months of last year, the median price has dropped only in two counties (Hiiu County and Jõgeva County), which has rather been based on the structure of transactions than on a substantial price drop. In Tartu County, the median price has increased by 9.7% in one year (1,369→1,501 €/m2), in Ida-Viru County by 5.8% (193→204 €/m2) and in Pärnu County by 1.2% (1,026→1,038 €/m2).
Apartment market in Tallinn
Almost 1,000 transactions (993) were concluded in Tallinn in November, which in the context of both the full recovery of the secondary market and realisation of earlier transactions with new developments is the best result this year.
The median price of transactions was also the highest this year – 2,112 €/m2, losing only to last December. The record-breaking results were facilitated by the market of new developments where 39% of the transactions (i.e. 389 transactions) were concluded, but also the secondary market was active, with over 600 transactions concluded for the third consecutive month.
In the first 11 months of the year, the number of transactions in Tallinn has dropped by 11.1%. The median price, however, has increased by 8.5% in spite of the 5% price drop of the typical apartments of the secondary market.
Apartment market in Tartu
Even though fewer transactions than in the four previous months were concluded in Tartu, it cannot be said that the market is slow; rather the end and the beginning of a calendar year have always been somewhat calmer in Tartu.
175 apartments were sold in November, of which 59 (i.e. 34%) were first-hand sales. 116 transactions were concluded in the secondary market, which was only six less than during the same period last year, but the number of transactions exceeded 100 for the fifth consecutive month. Due to such a high share of new developments as well as a price increase in the secondary market, the median price was the highest of all time – 1,687 €/m2.
In the comparison of years, the number of transactions has dropped by 9.1%, the median price has increased by 8.7%.
Apartment market in Pärnu
Like in October, the market in Pärnu was very active; due to the high median price the share of new developments stood out, but based on the transaction activity, the secondary market has also recovered from the first large drop.
November was the best month of this year, supported by 17 transactions with Lillepargi Homes – a total of 96 apartment sales-purchase transactions were concluded, 33 of which in new developments. However, the recovery of the market in the past months has also brought some losses – the prices in the secondary market have dropped by 5 to 7%, whereas new developments and houses have avoided price corrections.
The median price in November was the highest of the year – 1,359 €/m2. However, for the 11 months of this year, the price increase has been merely 0.8%. In comparison to last year, the number of transactions has dropped by 6.8%.
Apartment market in Narva
58 transactions were concluded in Narva, which was more than last month but less than the results of August and September.
After the first wave of Corona epidemic, the number of transactions in Narva has fluctuated between 45 and 80, with the average of 58. As the average monthly number of transactions last year was 63, it may be said that the transaction activity has virtually recovered. However, strict Corona restrictions were established in Ida-Viru County in December, which will definitely have an impact on the market of Narva.
The median price of transactions in November was the highest this year – 418 €/m2. However, based on the first 11 months of the year, the number of transactions has dropped by nearly 12%. The median price has increased by 2.2%.