Despite the ongoing economic downturn and weak performance in key economic indicators such as the retail volume index and consumer confidence, Estonia’s real estate market continued its upward trend in October, which began in July. Over 1,950 apartment ownership transactions were completed last month, marking the best result of the year and the strongest performance since June 2023. Transaction activity also increased in the Tallinn market.
Why is the real estate market growing despite weak economic conditions? The answer lies in a single factor: the base interest rate for loans, EURIBOR. By the end of October, the six-month EURIBOR fell below 3%, leading to increased borrowing capacity and lower loan payments. While price growth has not yet caught up with the rise in transaction volumes, experience shows that the combination of falling interest rates and rising transaction activity will soon drive prices higher as well.
Estonian Apartment Market
Statistically, the real estate market has contracted this year compared to last year. Over the first ten months of the year, transaction volumes and turnover have both decreased by 5.5%, while the median price has dropped by nearly 2%. The decline is attributed to the lack of price growth and a reduced share of new developments, which has impacted the overall market. However, focusing on actual sales rather than legal transactions reveals that activity in Tallinn’s market—both in the resale and new development sectors—is at its highest since mid-2022. The share of new developments is also evident in the statistics, albeit with a delay.
Preliminary data shows that 834 transactions were completed in Tallinn in October, the best monthly result of the year. Compared to the same time last year, transaction volumes increased by more than 150 (over 23%). Although the statistical median price fell by more than 6% year-on-year, transaction turnover grew by 19%. Resale activity exceeded 600 transactions in September, and while October’s final figures are yet to be confirmed, the trend points upward. In the new development sector, over 100 sales were recorded for the second consecutive month, with a 15% increase in new development sales in the first ten months of the year.
In Tartu, fewer than 150 transactions have been recorded in only one month since April. In October, 164 transactions were completed—a 39% increase compared to the same time last year. Market activity has grown similarly to Tallinn. The median price rose 14.6% year-on-year to €2,416 per square meter. However, for the first ten months of the year, transaction volumes are down 5.5% and the median price has fallen by 1.7%, similar to trends seen in Tallinn.
Pärnu had an active October, with 76 transactions recorded according to preliminary data. This result was second only to August’s performance, indicating a recovery in the market. Compared to the same time last year, transaction volumes declined significantly (-17.4%) as did the median price (-23.8%), partly due to a reduced share of new developments. In October, the median price reached €1,945 per square meter, exceeding this year’s average. Over the first ten months of the year, transaction turnover has dropped by over 20%, transaction volumes by nearly 18%, and the median price by around 10%.
In Narva, 73 transactions were completed in October, the same as in October last year. The median price fell by about 7% to €476 per square meter. Recent data indicates that Narva’s real estate market recovery is slower than in other cities. Over the first ten months of the year, transaction volumes decreased by nearly 5%, the median price by 3.6%, and turnover by 3.5%.