The events of the past month did not bring positive sentiment to the Estonian real estate market: the economy has been in decline for nine consecutive quarters, there is still significant uncertainty regarding the economic environment, and the preference for parking money in fixed deposits has slowed the faster recovery of the real estate market.
On the positive side, wage growth has outpaced real estate price growth, interest rates are gradually decreasing, and people have more disposable income. However, we do not forecast a rapid improvement in the near future, though there are several signs indicating that the real estate market may offer more positive news over the next 12 months.
The decline in the volume of new developments skews the market to appear more negative than it actually is. Purchase activity remains broadly on par with last year, as evidenced by resale transaction data and the purchase activity of new apartments in the Tallinn market, although recovery has taken longer in several markets. Across Estonia, slightly fewer than 1,700 transactions were concluded in May, with the final number likely to be similar to April’s level. Compared to the same time last year, 23% fewer transactions were concluded. The median transaction price was 10% lower, reaching €2,050/m². In the first five months of the year, over 7,700 transactions were concluded, 9% fewer than the same period last year, with the median price (at €2,005/m²) being 4% lower compared to the same period last year.
Estonian Apartment Market
In Tallinn, only 630 transactions were concluded in May according to preliminary data, fewer than in April. In the first five months of the year, nearly 3,050 transactions were concluded, 14% less than the same period last year. However, when considering actual market activity by including new development sales based on public offerings rather than previously concluded transactions, the market is 2.5% more active than at the same time last year. Activity has been boosted by new development transactions, with a quarter more apartments sold, while resale market activity remains similar to last year. The median transaction price remained steady at around €2,900/m² (specifically €2,908/m²), and the median price for the first five months was €2,795/m², practically the same as last year.
The decline in transaction numbers in Tartu was similar to Tallinn – the first five months of this year saw 10% fewer transactions. Preliminary data for May indicates 143 transactions, 22% fewer than the same period last year. The decrease in transaction numbers has come from new development transactions, while the number of resale transactions has been similar to last year. The decline in new development volume has also affected statistical price levels – the median price for the first five months was 4% lower year-over-year (from €2,486 to €2,393/m²), with a 9% decline in May.
The Pärnu market awakened from its long winter slumber in May. Seventy-four transactions were concluded, surpassing the previous best month, March, by 23 transactions. Compared to May last year, only 5 fewer transactions were concluded. However, the first five months of the year saw 38% fewer transactions than the same period last year. The median transaction price also fell by 10%, with this year’s first five months at €1,900/m².
The Narva apartment market has seen a significant increase in the number of listings, and the sales pressure, without the side effects of the new development market, has kept the local market more active than in other major cities. In the first five months of the year, 343 transactions were concluded, a 2% increase compared to the same period last year. In May, 64 transactions were concluded, fewer than in March or April. However, May’s median price was the best of the year (€534/m²), with the median price for the first five months at €510/m², 4% lower than the same period last year.