The Estonian apartment market continues on the wave of stability, but due to changes in transaction structure, we also anticipate statistical price declines this year. Although at first glance the number of transactions in January may seem alarmingly low to some, it is actually quite typical for the seasonal patterns of the Estonian real estate market, where both the number of listings and activity are lower in winter.
Broadly speaking, the Estonian real estate market continues to operate at approximately 5% below the average transaction level of the past 10 years. Therefore, excluding the recent two-year boom period, the number of transactions is quite close to a normal level.
We observe that the number of transactions this year is not expected to increase significantly – borrowing becomes cheaper and purchasing power improves, but rapid change is hindered by low consumer confidence.
Although prices in both the new development and secondary markets have decreased by 5–7%, some, but not sudden, price correction can still be expected. The main reasons behind the slight price decrease are:
1.) a very high occupancy rate,
2.) a reasonable proportion of total loan obligations to total net income,
3.) rapid inflation, which means that prices decreased by 4% in real terms last year and are also decreasing this year.
These reasons are also illustrated by one of the lowest proportions of overdue loans in Europe. Statistically, we see that transactions concluded with lower activity and prices in new developments will be reflected in this year’s transaction statistics, hence we observe a price decline in areas where prices are generally stable.
The apartment market didn’t offer any major surprises
The apartment market in January was typically calm for the beginning of the year, with an initial estimate of 1,262 purchase-sale transactions taking place across Estonia, remaining at the same level as last year. The median price per square meter increased by 3% compared to the previous year, reaching 1,977 euros.
In Tallinn, according to initial data, 537 apartments changed ownership (compared to 454 in January of the previous year), with the median price per square meter reaching 2,719 euros (compared to 2,641 euros the previous year). Compared to the previous month, both the number of transactions (-34%) and the median price (-17.5%) decreased, primarily due to a significant decrease in the proportion of new developments.
In Tartu, according to preliminary data, 78 apartments were sold in January. Compared to the previous year, the number of transactions decreased by as much as 45 apartments, or 37%. The small proportion of new apartments was reflected in the decreased median price per square meter, which was 1,999 euros. Compared to January of the previous year, the median price decreased by 18%.
January was very quiet in Pärnu. According to the initial estimate, only 25 apartments were sold – the usual number of transactions in Pärnu ranges between 50 and 75. Since mostly secondary market apartments were sold, the median price per square meter also decreased, remaining at 1,760 euros in January. Compared to the previous year, the number of transactions decreased by 42, and the median price decreased by 17%.
In Narva, 60 apartments were sold in January, with a median price per square meter of 482 euros. Compared to January of the previous year, the number of transactions increased by 14, but the median price decreased by 6%.