The rollercoaster characterising the real estate market of year 2020 is replaced with stability in 2021. Regardless of the continued suffocating environment of the corona pandemic, forward-looking consumer behaviour is reflected in both the stock market and the real estate market, giving reason to a simplified statement that fear of inflation outweighs the fear of economic insecurity.
The current real estate market is characterised by a low number of sales offers, on the one hand caused by the lack of desire to sell due to small number of alternative choices as well as lower consumer confidence mentioned above, which is further amplified by stable demand.
Regardless of the activity, the most important key word at least for the first half of the year is a low number of offers, which will probably have a negative impact also on the number of real estate transactions. Additionally, demand for larger apartments and houses is increasing in Harju County, as people spend more time at home and also want to have a home office in the premises.
1,804 apartment transactions were concluded in January, which was 4 more than in last January, losing only to January 2006 and January 2007 with over 2000 transactions. It means that the real estate market that was restored to life in autumn is continuing with new energy, showing no signs of stopping. In comparison to the same period last year, the number of transactions only increase in four counties.The largest increase took place in Tartu County (+114 transactions, 281 transactions in total) based on the continued large influence of the market of new developments. 964 transactions were concluded in Harju County (–43), 203 transactions in Ida-Viru County (+15) and 79 transactions in Pärnu County (–39 transactions).
Due to balancing of offering and demand, prices will rather increase this year. The median price of apartment transactions in January was 1,532 €/m2, which was only inferior to the last two months of last year. Compared to last January, the median price increased by nearly 9%.
Apartment market in Tallinn
766 transactions were concluded in Tallinn, which was the same level as for Januaries of the past years. In comparison to last January, 30 transactions more were concluded. 249 transactions were concluded with new developments, i.e. nearly one third of the total number of transactions. For the second consecutive month, the median price of transactions was over 2,200 €/m2, 14% higher than in last January.
The activity of the current market could be even higher but several properties are waiting for more stable times, whereas the deficit is continually the highest in the market of house shares and houses. The prices of the typical apartments of the secondary market have climbed up from the bottom in spring and summer, but have not yet reached the level of one year ago.
Apartment market in Tartu
223 transactions were concluded in Tartu, which in the context of the past years was only inferior to August 2019 with 261 transactions. Nearly 100 transactions were concluded with new developments, whereas even more transactions than in December were concluded in the secondary market. The activity of the market is probably not limited to January, as the volume of new developments remains very high also this year.
Thanks to the large share of new developments, the median price of transactions reached an all-time high – 1,762 €/m2. In comparison to the same period last year, the number of transactions increased more than twice and the median price increased by 12%. Interest in plots of land, house shares and houses is continually high. For new houses, the liquidity line is at 250,000 euros, for house shares up to 200,000 euros.
Apartment market in Pärnu
Also Pärnu with 60 transactions cannot complain about lack of activity. The number is lower than in last January (81 transactions), which was rather extraordinary, but it is higher than in most Januaries. The median price of transactions was 1,300 €/m2, which was 28% higher than the whole of last year. Only 9 transactions were concluded with new developments.
In addition to apartments in good locations, the market activity in Pärnu is also focused on new developments and houses with price class of up to 150,000 euros, whereas the prices in the market of typical apartments are on the rise, like in Tallinn.
Apartment market in Narva
A record of the past few years was broken in Narva, with 479 €/m2 as the median price of 61 transactions in January. The last time with such a high median price was in December 2015.
It has also been rather common in the past years that in one or two months of the year the median price is considerably higher than the average of the year, but it is still too soon to speak of a real price increase at the background of lower offering and slightly higher asking prices. In comparison to previous Januaries, 61 transactions is a rather average result, with two transactions less than last year.