The real estate market was again very active in September regardless of the second wave of coronavirus and the potential increase in registered unemployment in autumn. Consumers are also haunted by reduced savings and declined consumer confidence, thus it cannot be stated that the crisis has been overcome.
Estonian Real Estate market
The low point in the market has been left behind but also the number of transactions in September and the strong increase still points at the fact that the increase is based on earlier transactions with new developments. The sale of new developments in last months has somewhat recovered in comparison to spring but is still considerably lower in comparison to the results of last year. As both the construction market and the real estate market have always had a slight delay in comparison with the rest of the economy, a somewhat slower period can be anticipated at the time when the transactions with new developments under the law of obligations will become real-right transactions. The strong activity of the secondary market still gives hope that we have probably survived the crisis rather with a slight jolt than long-term suffering, even though the signals from Europe no longer predict quick recovery.
Mainly thanks to the large sales volume of transactions with new developments in the market of Tallinn, 2,166 transactions were concluded in September, which was the best result of the past five years. The activity of transactions in the rest of Estonia was good as well. The second wave of the corona epidemic has not brought significant restrictions and the consumer confidence is still good. In addition to the good result of Harju County, a record-breaking number of transactions this year was concluded in September also in Ida-Viru County, Rapla County, Valga County and Viljandi County. The median price of transactions was 1,415 €/m2, remaining at the average level of this year. The prices of transactions have mainly stood still after the corona epidemic; thanks to the strong result of the beginning of the year, the prices have increased by 5% in comparison to the first nine months of last year.
The market of houses and summer houses, the stars of this year’s real estate market, is not showing any signs of calming down. More transactions than in August were concluded in September with both houses and summer houses; during the first nine months of the year only 2% fewer transactions have been concluded this year, whereas 9% more transactions have been concluded with summer houses. As for summer houses and houses, the market of Harju County has been in slight decline (–4%) but thanks to the good result in the rest of Estonia, strong activity has been achieved. In that market, the price level depends on the activity of transactions even more but as a rule, the market value of such properties has not changed.
The apartment market in Tallinn
In Tallinn, many transactions with new developments were realised in September which brought the number of transactions to the highest level of this year. 845 transactions was also a higher number than last year’s result but such a strong result would have been impossible if the secondary market would not have recovered so much in the meantime.
More than a quarter of the transactions was concluded with new developments whereas 628 transactions were concluded in the secondary market, which was the best result of this year and a very strong figure in the context of the past years.
The real sale of new developments also surged in the 3rd quarter but in comparison to last year, the sales dropped about 20%. The median price of transactions was 2,069 €/m2, which in the context of this year was only inferior to May and June where the share of transactions with new developments was 39% and 45%, respectively, i.e. considerably higher.
The statistical price is still high even though it is no secret that an about 5% price correction in average has taken place for the typical apartments in the secondary market and also in new developments a storage room, parking place and in best cases also the kitchen furniture is more frequently included in the price of the apartment.
In the first nine months of the year, the number of transactions has dropped by 16%, the median price, however, has increased by 8% to 2,013 €/m2.
The apartment market in Tartu
In Tartu, 193 transactions were concluded in September, the median price of the transactions was 1,532 €/m2. The number of new developments was smaller than in August but rather high in the context of the whole year (share 26%), reflecting the large volume of new developments this year.
In the secondary market, the number of transactions has reached the pre-crisis level; in June 84 transactions were concluded but 142 transactions were concluded in September. Last year an average of 126 transactions per month were concluded in the secondary market and the result of September was rather reached in the best of months.
In comparison to the past two months, the median price dropped mainly due to the smaller share of new developments, even though a slight price correction has taken place also for the typical apartments in the secondary market.
In the comparison of the first nine months of the year, the number of transactions has dropped by 14%, the median price which has increased both in the market of new developments and in the secondary market was 1,559 €/m2 i.e. 7% higher than during the same period last year.
The apartment market in Pärnu
In Pärnu, the result of September was 76 transactions, which was the third result this year, only inferior to January and March. The result reflects the recovery of the secondary market, as there was a more or less similar number of transactions in Pärnu before the beginning of the corona epidemic.
65 transactions were concluded in the secondary market, which was the best result of the year. E.g. last year, 58 transactions in average were concluded in the secondary market and such a number of transactions was rather achieved in the best of months. 83 transactions were concluded a year ago but then the share of new developments was 29%, not 14% like in September. The median price in September – 1,173 €/m2 – reflects the impact of a lower share of new developments.
However, in comparison to last month when the share was the same, the median price increased by 3%. In comparison to the first nine months of last year, the number of transactions has dropped by 14%. As a result of the lower share of new developments and the stop in the increase of the median price, the median price has dropped by 1%.
The apartment market in Narva
80 transactions were concluded in Narva, which was the best result this year and nearly the best result in the context of the past 12 months. The result of last September was exceeded by 11 transactions. The median price of transactions in September was 409 €/m2, which was higher than average in the context of this year. Thus, in Narva, the market has become more active similar to the rest of Estonia. In comparison to other larger cities, the number of transactions in Narva in the first nine months has dropped the least in comparison to the same period last year, to a certain extent due to the lack of the market of new developments. According to preliminary information, 514 transactions have been concluded this year (–7% in comparison to the same period last year) and the median price of those transactions was 397 €/m2 (+2% in comparison to the same period last year).