In August, the market recovery continued, marked by the best transaction numbers of the year in several regions. In the coming months, the number of transactions will be a key indicator for predicting market behavior. Prices tend to react with a delay, so as transaction volumes increase, a price rise can also be expected.
The recovery has been supported by improved purchasing power due to wage growth, falling interest rates, and a slight rise in consumer confidence, though it remains at a historically low level. However, it’s important to note that the market’s recovery will not be quick, as it remains highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment. Government-planned tax hikes and cuts may also delay the recovery. Therefore, we’re unlikely to see linear growth in the near future and must be prepared for potential setbacks over the coming months.
Estonian Apartment Market
In August, a total of 1,842 apartment transactions were completed across Estonia, marking the best result of the year. This was nearly 200 more than in July, but 5% fewer than in the same period last year. The median price also began to rise again (€2,086/m², +2.2%), with the last price increase recorded in January. Compared to the first eight months of last year, the market turnover for apartment ownerships has dropped by just over 10%, mainly due to a decline in transaction volume (-9.1%), while the median price has only decreased by 3.4%.
In Tallinn, 727 transactions were completed in August, with a median price of €2,920/m² – both the best figures of the year, indicating the market’s continued recovery. The data shows growth in both the resale and new development markets, although price increases are currently only seen in the resale segment. Compared to the same period last year, the number of transactions increased by 6.9% and the median price by 4.8%. For the first eight months of the year, transaction numbers have fallen by 11.1% and the median price by 1.4% compared to the previous year.
In Tartu, August also saw the year’s best performance in both transaction numbers (166 transactions) and the median price (€2,652/m²). The market is slowly recovering in both the resale and new development sectors, though compared to last year, transaction volumes have dropped by 17.8% and the median price by 1.2%. For the first eight months of this year, the transaction count is down 11.5%, but the median price has risen by 2.4%.
Pärnu continued its market growth in August with 81 transactions, the best result this year. This was 20 more transactions than the same time last year. Growth, as elsewhere in Estonia, is driven by an increase in supply and improved purchasing power. However, the median price has not risen, as the share of resale apartments has grown. The median price (€1,853/m²) dropped by nearly 6% year-on-year and by more than 9% over the first eight months of the year.
In Narva, 62 transactions were completed in August with a median price of €533/m². Compared to the same period last year, the number of transactions decreased by 1.6%, but the median price increased by 7.8%. The market in Narva remains stable, although activity has declined due to an increase in supply. The growth in listings and a slight price decrease suggest that Narva could see a delayed increase in transaction volumes. For the first eight months of the year, both transaction numbers and the median price have dropped by about 3% year-on-year.