April confirmed that the market recovery is a reality, although it’s premature to talk about significant shifts in a low consumer confidence environment. Preliminary data indicates that a total of 1690 apartment transactions were concluded across Estonia. This marked the best result of the year and surpassed last year’s April performance.
Based on the first four months of the year, nearly 6000 transactions were concluded, which was 4.5% less than a year ago. The median price per square meter for transactions during the same period was €1996, representing a 2.3% decrease compared to last year. In several regions, including Tallinn and Tartu, the market is more active than last year, although the number of transactions, influenced by previously concluded transactions in new developments, does not fully reflect this yet. However, there are several areas, such as Pärnu, where the market recovery is taking longer.
Estonian Apartment Market
In Tallinn, according to preliminary data, 676 apartments changed ownership, marking one of the best results of the year for many areas, although likely falling short of last year’s figure of 703 transactions. In the first four months of the year, just over 2400 transactions were concluded in Tallinn, representing a 7% decrease compared to the same period last year. However, when considering the actual market activity by adding new development sales to secondary market transactions rather than relying solely on previously concluded deals, the market appears to be 11% more active than the same period last year. The median price per square meter remained steady at €2900, with a slight increase to €2773 for the first four months, up 1.2% compared to the same period last year.
In Tartu, preliminary data indicates the sale of 152 apartments with a median price of €2769 per square meter, both marking the best results of the year, largely due to new development transactions comprising nearly one-third. In the first four months, 491 transactions were concluded in Tartu, representing an 8% decrease compared to the same period last year, with a median price of €2411 per square meter, down 2.3% compared to last year. However, when focusing solely on secondary market transactions without considering new development transactions that distort actual market activity, the market is clearly in a growth phase, with approximately 22% more transactions than the same period last year.
The most significant decline has been observed in the Pärnu market, heavily reliant on seasonal migrants and investor activity. Preliminary data indicates a similar number of transactions in April compared to March, approximately 49. In the first four months of the year, there were 47% fewer transactions in Pärnu compared to the same period last year. The median price per square meter in April exceeded €2000 for the first time this year. The median transaction price for the first four months in Pärnu was 12.2% lower than the same period last year, standing at €1872 per square meter. Therefore, Pärnu remains the only market among the four major cities where market recovery has not yet occurred.
In the Narva apartment market, preliminary data indicates 275 transactions in the first four months of the year, nearly 6% more than the same period last year. April saw 81 transactions, marking the best result of the year so far and nine transactions more than the same period last year. The median price per square meter in April, €515, was also the best result of the year, with the first four months averaging €502 per square meter, nearly 6% lower than the same period last year.