While August brought confidence to the real estate market recovery that began in July, September confirmed the moderate optimism based on the number of transactions in previous months, indicating that the market downturn is behind us.
In developed countries, the recovery has already translated into price growth, but in Estonia, we can still only talk about the growth in the number of transactions. As purchasing power and consumer confidence improve, price growth will follow. Therefore, buyers should act quickly, as despite being in a seller’s market due to high supply—and banks making efforts to offer the best loan conditions—a sharp drop in interest rates could bring rapid changes to the market.
Estonian Apartment Market
According to preliminary data, 1,825 apartment sales transactions were made across Estonia in September. As more transactions are added, September is likely to be on par with August (1,899 transactions). This means that for the second consecutive month, over 1,800 transactions have been concluded—the last time this happened was in August and September 2022. Compared to the same time last year, 3% more transactions were made, and the median transaction price increased for the second month in a row, this time by 1.5%. Looking at longer periods also highlights the strong recovery in recent months. Preliminary data shows that 5,414 sales transactions were concluded in the third quarter, marking the first time since 2022 that a quarterly increase in transactions can be reported. The increase in the median price is also notable—this may be partly due to a composition effect, where a larger share of transactions involves better-quality apartments. However, after this surge in activity, price increases will likely follow.
In Tallinn, 715 transactions were made in September according to preliminary data (727 in August), and the median transaction price was €2,762 per square meter. Compared to the same period last year, nearly 8% more transactions were made, though the median transaction price dropped by 2.2%. The pricing statistics are still influenced by a lower share of new developments, though in both new and secondary markets, prices remain stable. Valuers are now seeing more cases where transaction prices exceed market value, indicating further price movement in the market.
In Tartu, September’s activity remained at the same level as the previous two months, with 143 transactions and a median price of €2,327 per square meter. While there was a slight statistical decrease in transaction numbers compared to the same period last year, trends in Tartu mirror those of the capital, with transaction numbers rising in certain segments. The median price has increased year-on-year for three consecutive months, although a nominal price decline has occurred this year due to the lower volume of new developments (from €2,470 to €2,410 per square meter).
In Pärnu, September fell slightly below the long-term average, with 60 transactions according to preliminary data. Compared to the same time last year, 10 more transactions were made, and the median price reached the highest level of the year at €2,193 per square meter. In the third quarter, 199 transactions were concluded in Pärnu (+44 year-on-year), with a median price of €1,854 per square meter (+4.2%).
In Narva, 61 transactions were made in September, with a median price of €537 per square meter. Compared to the same period last year, the number of transactions dropped by nearly 20, while the median price remained almost the same. The third quarter figures for Narva were anomalous, as the transaction volume was lower than in the first or second quarter. Offering prices are still declining, partly due to rapidly rising heating costs.